Do used GPU prices lag new releases? An event-study plan around the RTX 50 launch

H1 · Status: open · Confidence: E (insufficient data)

FACT — the event

• NVIDIA announced the GeForce RTX 50 series at CES 2025 (Jan 7, 2025). The RTX 5090 ($1,999) and RTX 5080 ($999) went on sale January 30, 2025; the RTX 5070 Ti ($749) and RTX 5070 ($549) followed in February 2025. (Sources: nvidia.com GeForce News, TechRadar CES 2025 coverage.)
• ResaleScope observes secondary listings daily but holds no transaction history yet for the 40-series generation, so no price effect can be measured at this time.

HYPOTHESIS

Used prices of the previous generation (RTX 40 series) drop 14–30 days after the new-generation on-sale date, as upgraders list old cards and retailers clear stock. Expected magnitude: 5–15%.

ANALYSIS — how we will test it

• Event date: January 30, 2025 (5090/5080 on sale).
• Series: daily median asking price + listing count for RTX 4080 / 4090 / 4070.
• Method: interrupted time series with a pre-window of 60 days.
• Falsification: no significant drop within 60 days, or the drop precedes the event.

INTERPRETATION — why it matters

A stable lag would turn launch calendars into a buy-timing signal — the first instance of decision information where today only price information exists.

No buy/sell recommendation is made. Figures will be published with data-confidence grades when available.